Nirvana, Inflation, Reflation & Deflation

The four economic states called Nirvana, Inflation, Reflation, and Deflation (NIRDs) serve as core categories that determine which sectors warrant trading attention.

These daily-updated charts differ from the lagging monthly GDP and CPI-based NIRDs discussed elsewhere on the site.

The analysis foundation involves constructing virtual portfolios with long and short positions across different sector ETFs. These portfolios derive from extensive back tests and research identifying which sectors tend to outperform and underperform within each NIRD.

The dashboard displays rolling monthly returns for all sectors and shows how each NIRD portfolio maintains long/short positioning. The headline returns for each market mode appear in the middle section.

By monitoring NIRD portfolio performance across time, patterns emerge that enable predictions about turning points.

Additionally, a moving average signal for each NIRD helps detect crucial turning points through sharp reversals. This functionality assists in targeting the right sectors at the right time.