Know the regime. Know the trade.

The market is always in one of four regimes. Knowing which one — and what it rewards — is the difference between conviction and guesswork.

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No credit card required · New accounts get 14 days of Pro, free

How the system works

One principle drives everything: understand where we are in the cycle before placing trades.

The NIRD Regimes

The NIRDs are four market regimes that guide your portfolio construction decisions.

Founded on economic growth and inflation
Tracked daily through four carefully constructed backtested portfolios of ETFs
Enhanced with volume, volatility and survey overlays

NirvanaInflationReflationDeflation

Where have we been?

The Macro Market NIRD plots GDP and inflation rates of change to place the economic backdrop precisely within a regime.

The Alpha Helm toolkit

Purpose-built tools that cover the full analytical stack, updated every trading day.

Macro Compass

NIRD regime charts, style factor ratios, 30-day rolling factor performance, and volatility analysis — all working together to help you identify which regimes to target and where the macro weight of evidence is pointing.

Sector Playbook

Sector tracking and long/short portfolio performance for each NIRD, a 12-factor sector ranking model covering performance, momentum, volume, and risk — plus return profiles, detailed volume flow analysis, and a 1-month rolling correlation table. Everything you need to refine your target areas before going deeper.

Outlook

A deeper layer of regime analysis built on top of the macro foundation. The Nearcast gives a probability-weighted forecast for the Sector NIRD regimes. Forward expectations captured by 20 aggregated economic surveys. Volume and volatility NIRDs show internal regime performance — so you know whether to press or protect.

Signal over narrative

Learn the system free. Go full signal when you're ready.

14 days of Pro — free

Free

Macro Market NIRD
Bond Market NIRD
Commodity NIRD
Style Factor Ratios
Volatility Heatmap
Rolling Returns
Glossary Insights

Different asset classes and sectors perform very differently depending on which regime you're in.

Where are we heading?

Style factor ratios are early warnings of a regime shift.
20 forward-looking economic surveys, aggregated into regime signals, capturing market expectations early.
NIRD Nearcast gives a probability weighting for where the market is heading in the near term.

How fast are we going?

Use the internal performance of the Sector Market NIRD portfolios for leading insights into where to buy.
The Volume NIRD confirms when market activity is concentrating into regime-aligned sectors.

How rough could it get?

The Volatility NIRD shows which regimes have a supportive environment based on realized volatility.
Sector volatility is mapped as a percentile heatmap so you can clearly see where stress is building.

Idea Engine

Top-down stock discovery built around the regime. Start with a relative rotation chart of all sectors vs SPY, drill into any sector to see its components rotating against the ETF, surface the top-ranked stocks, and explore curated lists of high-conviction ideas flagged across multiple quantitative metrics. Each stock includes a Fractal Range — a price zone derived from price, volume, and volatility — so you always have a level to work with.

Weekly Windup

Every weekend, an AI-generated report that distils the week's signals into a single structured briefing and clear trading thesis.

Watchlists

Any stock you encounter across the site can be instantly added to a working list — so you can collect ideas as you go without losing your place. Manage and organise them into dedicated lists, and track your actual portfolio exposure to each regime.

Start by understanding the macro environment your portfolio is operating in. The NIRD regime chart, Style Factor Ratios, and Volatility Heatmap give you a clear read on whether the market is rewarding risk-on or risk-off positioning — so you're never caught holding the wrong sectors at the wrong time. It's your macro compass, completely free.

No credit card required

Starter

USD / month

Everything in Free, plus:

Full Sector Playbook
Full Idea Engine
Personal Watchlists
Portfolio Architect
Subscriber blog posts

Cancel any time · No lock-in

Pro

All features

$10

USD / month

Everything in Starter, plus:

Weekly Windup
Regime Outlook
Portfolio Architect
Signal data via Google Sheets
Request new stock coverages
Every new major feature in future

Cancel any time · No lock-in